Last Updated on September 25, 2026 by Bala Kumar
Two players look down at their cards. One has pocket queens. The other has jack-seven suited. Which hand is better?
Before the flop, the answer is easy. Queens win that race most of the time. But poker isn’t played only before the flop. Some hands are strong right now. Others are weak now but could become monsters later. Understanding that difference is what hand potential is all about.
In this guide, we’ll break down what hand potential means, how to measure it, and how it played out in some very real (and very painful) hands at the 2026 WSOP Online this week.
What Is Hand Potential?
Hand potential is how much a hand can improve on later streets, and how valuable it will be if it does.
Every hand has two sides:
- Current strength: How good the hand is right now.
- Future potential: How likely it is to improve, and how big that improvement could be.
Pocket aces have huge current strength but limited room to grow. A hand like 8♥7♥ is weak right now, but it can turn into straights, flushes, and even straight flushes. Great players weigh both sides before every decision.
Made Hands vs Drawing Hands
To understand potential, start with these two categories.
Made hands already have value: a pair, two pair, a set, a straight. They’re often ahead now, but some of them are vulnerable to being outdrawn.
Drawing hands need help: flush draws, straight draws, overcards. They’re usually behind now, but they have the potential to win big pots when they hit.
Many of the best hands to hold after the flop are a mix of both, like top pair with a flush draw. These combo draws give you a hand that’s decent now and has plenty of ways to get better.
Counting Your Outs
An out is any card that improves your hand to what you think will be the best hand.
Some common examples:
- Flush draw: 9 outs (13 cards of a suit, minus the 4 you can see)
- Open-ended straight draw: 8 outs
- Gutshot straight draw: 4 outs
- Two overcards: up to 6 outs
- Flush draw plus open-ended straight draw: up to 15 outs
Be careful, though. Not every out is a clean out. If a card completes your straight but also puts four cards of one suit on the board, your opponent might already have a flush. Always ask whether your “out” really wins.
The Rule of 2 and 4
Here’s a quick way to estimate your chances without a calculator:
- On the flop, with two cards to come: multiply your outs by 4.
- On the turn, with one card to come: multiply your outs by 2.
So a flush draw (9 outs) on the flop has roughly a 36% chance of hitting by the river. On the turn, it’s roughly 18%.
It’s not perfect math, but it’s close enough to make good decisions at the table.
Pot Odds: Is the Call Worth It?
Knowing your chances is only half the job. You also need to know if the price is right. That’s where pot odds come in.
Pot odds compare the size of the bet you need to call with the total pot you could win.
Example: The pot is $100, and your opponent bets $50. The pot is now $150, and you need to call $50. You’re risking $50 to win $150, so you need to win at least 25% of the time for the call to break even.
If your draw hits more often than that, calling is profitable. If not, folding is usually right.
Implied Odds: Thinking About Future Money
Sometimes the current pot odds aren’t quite enough, but calling is still correct. Why? Because of implied odds, the extra chips you expect to win on later streets if you hit.
This is where hand potential really shines. Hands like small pocket pairs and suited connectors often win huge pots when they hit, because opponents with strong-looking hands won’t believe them. That future money makes it worth taking a cheaper chance now.
Implied odds are strongest when:
- Stacks are deep.
- Your draw is well hidden.
- Your opponent is likely to pay you off.
Reverse Implied Odds: The Hidden Danger
Here’s the part many players forget. Sometimes improving your hand actually costs you more money. That’s called reverse implied odds.
It usually happens when you make a hand that looks good but is still second-best. You feel strong, you put in more chips, and you run into something better.
Real Example: The Jack That Cost a Stack
At the $25,000 High Roller Championship final table of the 2026 WSOP Online this week, Daniel Negreanu held pocket queens against Parahat Nurmuhammedov’s J♣7♣. Nurmuhammedov check-raised a flop of 5♣6♥5♦, then paired his jack on the turn.
That jack looked like good news for him. It wasn’t. It ended up costing him his whole stack and put Negreanu in the lead with seven players left.
That’s reverse implied odds in action. Improving to a pair of jacks gave Nurmuhammedov a hand strong enough to keep putting chips in, but not strong enough to win.
Nut Draws vs Non-Nut Draws
Not all draws are created equal. A nut draw means that if you hit, you’ll have the best possible hand. A non-nut draw can hit and still lose.
This matters hugely in games like Pot-Limit Omaha, where players often hold multiple draws at once.
Real Example: When Both Players Hit
Earlier this week, Negreanu busted the 2026 WSOP Online $10,000 PLO event in seventh place for $71,111. He ran a premium draw into a bigger one in a pot worth almost 200 big blinds. The 5♣ on the river gave Freund the higher club flush and ended Negreanu’s run.
Negreanu later explained his thinking on X, noting that his pair of fours blocked the 4-5 nut straight. His reasoning was solid. But the hand is a perfect lesson: when you’re drawing, always ask what happens if you hit but your opponent hits something better.
Why Connected Hands Are So Dangerous
Hands like 9-8 or 7-6 look weak before the flop, but they connect with boards in many ways.
Real Example: Two Pair Beats an Overpair
In the same $25K High Roller, Negreanu was a heavy favorite with pocket tens, but Casimir Seire’s 9-8 made two pair and eliminated him in fourth place for about $415,700. Seire went on to win the bracelet and $906,647.
This is exactly why hand potential matters. Pocket tens were far ahead before the flop, but 9-8 has plenty of ways to beat an overpair: two pair, trips, straights. When those hands connect, they can crack even strong starting hands.
How Position Affects Hand Potential
Your seat at the table changes how much your hand is worth.
In position, you act last, so you can see what your opponent does before deciding. This lets you take free cards with draws, control the pot, and extract more value when you hit. Speculative hands gain value in position.
Out of position, it’s much harder to realize your hand’s potential. You may be forced to fold good draws to aggressive bets. That’s why many players play fewer speculative hands from early seats.
Hands With High Potential
Some hands consistently have strong potential, especially in position and with deep stacks:
- Suited connectors like 8♠7♠ or 6♥5♥
- Suited aces like A♣5♣, which can make the nut flush
- Small and medium pocket pairs, which can flop sets
- Suited one-gappers like 9♦7♦
And some hands have poor potential:
- Weak offsuit hands like K-4 or Q-3, which often make second-best pairs
- Dominated hands like A-8 offsuit, which lose big pots to A-K and A-Q
Common Mistakes With Hand Potential
- Overvaluing any draw. A weak draw with bad odds is a losing call.
- Forgetting reverse implied odds. Making a pair doesn’t mean you’re ahead.
- Chasing non-nut draws into big bets. Hitting and losing is the most expensive way to lose.
- Playing too many speculative hands out of position. Potential is harder to realize without position.
- Ignoring stack sizes. With short stacks, implied odds disappear, and drawing hands lose much of their value.
Final Thoughts
Poker hands are like investments. Some pay off immediately. Others need time to grow. The best players know which is which, and they only invest when the price and the potential make sense.
Next time you look at your hand, don’t just ask, “How strong is this right now?” Ask, “What could this become, and what will it cost me to find out?” That one question will change the way you play.
And if you want to see hand potential play out live, the 2026 WSOP Online on GGPoker runs through September 29, so there’s still plenty of action left to watch.
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